The 2023 Nigerian House of Representatives elections in Abia State will be held on 25 February 2023, to elect the 3 House of Representatives members from Abia State, one from each of the state's three senatorial districts. The elections will coincide with the 2023 presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives and elections to the Senate; with state elections . Five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. Arizona. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm. He withdrew before the runoff. whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and. A lead of that magnitude would predict a Republican gain of one seat in the House and a Democratic gain of two seats in the Senate giving Democrats a 221-214 seat majority in the House and a 52-48 seat majority in the Senate. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. Visit. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. 2022 United States House of Representatives Elections in Iowa by county.svg. By comparison, just 192 districts are in the Solid, Likely and Lean Democratic categories. Alabama. The map below shows how each 2022 U.S. House district would have voted in the 2020 presidential election. Republicans formally captured 218 House seats, a delayed yet consequential finish to the 2022 midterm elections. The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. The Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. Policy: Christopher Nelson Caitlin Styrsky Molly Byrne Katharine Frey Jimmy McAllister Samuel Postell We rated every race in play in 2022. We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans' chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious. The darker the square, the greater the likelihood this will occur. The U.S. House incumbents listed in the table below announced their candidacy for the same congressional district for the 2022 U.S. House elections. All rights reserved. [2] Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for . A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. Its a busy time for collecting polls. However, our forecast does not take into account the specific seats that are on the ballot in 2022, only the numbers of Democratic and Republican seats. [14] One district Indiana's 2nd was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[15]. In 2022, Sablan is running as a Democrat. Updated September 23, 2022 10:43 am. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. The figures shown are total numbers. Depending then on which side has the edge in the generic ballot,. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. A federal district court, in striking down the state's congressional redistricting plan, postponed the deadline for candidates qualifying by petition in lieu of paying the filing fee from June 22, 2022, to July 8, 2022. A GOP sweep of those Toss Up races would represent a gain of 30 seats, and its not unusual for one party to win the lions share of competitive contests. From Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. The presidents party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each party prior to the election. The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. Search our Site: . Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. California. Read the analysis ($). Lawmakers in the Colorado House of Representatives on Monday defeated a Republican proposal for a sweeping overhaul of state election laws backed by conspiracy theorists who baselessly allege that . This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would target in 2022. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania suspended the candidate filing period for the primary election, pending resolution of a redistricting dispute. This section does not include vacant seats filled by special election before November 8, 2022, unless no incumbents appeared on the regular primary ballot for that seat. Beyond this general tendency, however, the magnitude of these losses has varied considerably. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in todays KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Were now less than 4 weeks from 2022s Election Day. McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the primary. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Ballotpedia identified 33 of the 435 House races (8.5%) as battlegrounds. We can use the results from the regression equations in Table 2 to generate conditional forecasts of seat swing in the 2022 House and Senate elections. Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. November 6:CA-21, IL-08, WA-06 move from Safe to Likely D; CO-03 Safe to Likely R; CT-05 Leans D to Leans R; GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; WA-03 Safe to Likely D. All toss-ups picked - Toss-up to Leans D: CA-13, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, PA-08, TX-28. The generic ballot model uses two predictors the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the presidents party to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. A similar situation occurred in the 2012 election, in which Republicans managed to hold onto their majority despite losing the national popular vote for the House. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Current Sabato's Crystal Ball 2022 House forecast. -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Check out our, There is no secret sauce. The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. By Leke Baiyewu. 2022 U.S. House of Representative election results and polls The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. Click here to learn more about how Ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness figures. Leading candidates forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. Less clear is what the race will do to his . As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority.[1]. This was more than in 2020 but fewer than at any other point in the preceding decade. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. The seat of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, whose functions are similar to the delegates, was not up for election this year. By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. The court also extended the filing deadline from March 22, 2022, to April 15, 2022. A consensus outlook for the 2022 House elections based on the current ratings of theseseven forecasters. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r